Lessons from outbreaks of COVID-19 at Israeli military bases.

BACKGROUND: To mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), national guidelines, in accordance with international health authorities, mandated 14 days of quarantine for every close contact of a confirmed COVID-19 patient. Although health benefits are obvious, consequences are profound, especially for organizations required to maintain operational preparedness. OBJECTIVES: To present the Israel Defense Force (IDF) experience with outbreaks regarding quarantined individuals. To weigh the consequences of quarantined individuals needed for workforce and operation. METHODS: All positive COVID-19 cases in the IDF, as measured by a positive rRT-PCR test result, between 29 February and 18 May 2020 were evaluated. Numbers of positive individuals, quarantined individuals, and confirmatory exams conducted were collected. We compared the events in four units with the largest outbreaks and assessed the impact of confirmed cases, tests conducted, and workforce loss due to quarantine. RESULTS: Of the 187 soldiers who tested positive for COVID-19, source of infection was traced to 140 soldiers (75%). Almost no medical treatment was delivered, and hospitalization was rare. We found a median of 15.2% (interquartile range 5.3-34) for decline in unit workforce due to quarantine measures. Maximum reduction reached 47% of the workforce in one unit. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a relatively small number of confirmed cases, units underwent a substantial change in mode of operation due to the toll of quarantined individuals. In certain populations and organizations, perhaps a more liberal application of isolation and contact tracing is suitable due to the heavy economic burden and consequences in term of operational readiness.

Data Empowerment of Decision-Makers in an Era of a Pandemic: Intersection of "Classic" and Artificial Intelligence in the Service of Medicine.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 outbreak required prompt action by health authorities around the world in response to a novel threat. With enormous amounts of information originating in sources with uncertain degree of validation and accuracy, it is essential to provide executive-level decision-makers with the most actionable, pertinent, and updated data analysis to enable them to adapt their strategy swiftly and competently. OBJECTIVE: We report here the origination of a COVID-19 dedicated response in the Israel Defense Forces with the assembly of an operational Data Center for the Campaign against Coronavirus. METHODS: Spearheaded by directors with clinical, operational, and data analytics orientation, a multidisciplinary team utilized existing and newly developed platforms to collect and analyze large amounts of information on an individual level in the context of SARS-CoV-2 contraction and infection. RESULTS: Nearly 300,000 responses to daily questionnaires were recorded and were merged with other data sets to form a unified data lake. By using basic as well as advanced analytic tools ranging from simple aggregation and display of trends to data science application, we provided commanders and clinicians with access to trusted, accurate, and personalized information and tools that were designed to foster operational changes and mitigate the propagation of the pandemic. The developed tools aided in the in the identification of high-risk individuals for severe disease and resulted in a 30% decline in their attendance to their units. Moreover, the queue for laboratory examination for COVID-19 was optimized using a predictive model and resulted in a high true-positive rate of 20%, which is more than twice as high as the baseline rate (2.28%, 95% CI 1.63%-3.19%). CONCLUSIONS: In times of ambiguity and uncertainty, along with an unprecedented flux of information, health organizations may find multidisciplinary teams working to provide intelligence from diverse and rich data a key factor in providing executives relevant and actionable support for decision-making.

Self-reported symptoms in healthy young adults to predict potential coronavirus disease 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the utility of self-reported symptoms in identifying positive coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases among predominantly healthy young adults in a military setting. METHODS: A questionnaire regarding COVID-19 symptoms and exposure history was administered to all individuals contacting the Israeli Defence Forces Corona call-centre, before PCR testing. Surveyed symptoms included cough, fever, sore throat, rhinorrhoea, loss of taste or smell, chest pain and gastrointestinal symptoms. Factors were compared between positive and negative cases based on confirmatory test results, and positive likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated. Results were stratified by sex, body mass index, previous medical history and dates of questioning, and a multivariable analysis for association with positive test was conducted. RESULTS: Of 24 362 respondents, 59.1% were men with a median age of 20.5 years (interquartile range 19.6-22.4 years). Significant positive LRs were associated with loss of taste or smell (LR 3.38, 95% CI 3.01-3.79), suspected exposure (LR 1.33, 95% CI 1.28-1.39) and fever (LR 1.26, 95% CI 1.17-1.36). Those factors were also associated with positive PCR result in a multivariable analysis (OR 3.51, 95% CI 3.04-4.06; OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.65-2.09; and OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.19-1.51, respectively). Reports of loss of taste or smell increased gradually over time and were significantly more frequent during the late period of the study (63/5231, 1.21%; 156/7941, 1.96%; and 1505/11 190, 13.45%: p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Loss of taste or smell, report of a suspicious exposure and fever (>37.5°C) were consistently associated with positive LRs for a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test result, in a population of predominantly young and healthy adults.